
By Emma Harrison, CEO of Make Votes Matter.
Last night I attended the APPG on Fair Elections panel discussion: “Do the local elections strengthen the case for electoral reform?” It was one of the most serious and revealing conversations about the future of British politics I’ve heard in some time.
The standout contribution came from Sir John Curtice, whose forensic analysis of the local election results carried a stark warning for every political party.
“If at the same time your vote goes down and becomes more geographically spread, the system will murder you.”
Rigourously non-partisan, Curtice was not making a party political argument. He was describing a structural problem with First Past the Post itself, and the numbers are becoming impossible to ignore. As Curtice explained, we are now entering an era of unprecedented fragmentation in British politics.
Professor Tim Bale, reflected that: “We are looking at a very, very fragmented result. The Conservative and Labour share of the vote is down to a little more than 30%. Half of what we would expect.”
For decades, defenders of First Past the Post argued that while imperfect, the system at least produced stability. It rewarded broad coalitions and delivered decisive outcomes but what happens when the electorate no longer behaves like a two-party system?
Bale again: “First Past the Post has always been an unfair system, but it’s been a system that historically has benefitted Conservatives and Labour… but now we have a very different picture, we have a five-way split of votes.”
That matters because First Past the Post is not simply about how many votes a party wins. It is about where those votes are distributed. A party whose support becomes thinner and more geographically dispersed can see millions of votes translate into very few seats. Another can pile up concentrated victories while lacking broad national support. The result is growing distortion between how people vote and how Parliament looks.
And this no longer threatens just smaller parties. The old assumptions that protected Labour and the Conservatives are beginning to unravel too . As Professor Bale warned: “The next election could prove what a weird system this is and create a very strange outcome.”
That warning hung heavily over the room. Indeed, one of the most striking aspects of the discussion was not simply the panel itself, but the questions from MPs afterwards. Increasingly, some parliamentarians themselves are asking whether we can really afford to wait until after the next general election before addressing the voting system.
Because if the current trends continue, the next election could produce a Parliament that satisfies almost nobody: distorted, fragmented, unstable and lacking clear democratic legitimacy. What was once dismissed as a niche constitutional issue is rapidly becoming a question of democratic resilience.
And this debate is no longer confined to traditional reform campaigners. Today, The Guardian reported comments from Andy Burnham that amount to one of the clearest endorsements yet from a major political figure for electoral reform.
Speaking to BBC Radio Manchester, Burnham said:
“I do think there needs to be reform to the electoral system to enable less point-scoring, more problem-solving – that’s what I think we need. Less short term, more long term.”
That captures the heart of the issue. Electoral reform is not about helping one party over another. It is about creating a political system capable of reflecting modern Britain, a country that is diverse, politically fragmented and increasingly impatient with adversarial tribalism.
The old electoral system was built for a different age. British politics has changed; the voting system has not. But we need to ensure that there is legitimacy for the change and Sir John warned that “If you haven’t done the groundwork before the moment of political opportunity then you won’t seize it effectively… if you can run a commission… you’ll be in a better position.”
So, if you haven’t already, make sure your MP has signed the amendment for a National Commission on Electoral Reform!







